Record Oil Price Sparks Call For Petrol Rationing.

[sixfan]

No, you're wrong.

Firstly,

I'll take your Cleopatra's p1ss and raise you an oil deposit:

Atleast some of The Co2 in Your exhaust is being absorbed into the ocean, where little single celled critters combine it with the energy from the sun to grow and reproduce, when they die, they sink to the sea floor and just occasionally, get incorporated into strata forming on the sea floor amenable to Oil formation.

There is, even as we speak, new oil deposits forming on the sea floor, it may take a long time, but the formation of oil is not something that happened only once in the earths history and, indeed, it's still happening today.

Oil is actually a Bio fuel that originally got it's energy from the sun, how enviro-friendly and renewable do you want?

Secondly:

the term "Reserve" as in Oil Reserve is defined as an estimated quantity of a given mineral / element that can be ECONOMICALLY extracted, as the price rises, then the deposit can support extraction at a higher cost, eg pumping Co2 to pressurize the well or drilling deeper wells at greater expense.

Perhaps the best example is the Albertan Oil sands, these were considered a large Oil deposit (uneconomic) until a few years ago when the price really rose, now they're mining them, the reserves there are massive at todays oil prices...

[Guest FatBAt]

No, you're wrong.

Firstly,

I'll take your Cleopatra's p1ss and raise you an oil deposit:

Atleast some of The Co2 in Your exhaust is being absorbed into the ocean, where little single celled critters combine it with the energy from the sun to grow and reproduce, when they die, they sink to the sea floor and just occasionally, get incorporated into strata forming on the sea floor amenable to Oil formation.

There is, even as we speak, new oil deposits forming on the sea floor, it may take a long time, but the formation of oil is not something that happened only once in the earths history and, indeed, it's still happening today.

Oil is actually a Bio fuel that originally got it's energy from the sun, how enviro-friendly and renewable do you want?

Secondly:

the term "Reserve" as in Oil Reserve is defined as an estimated quantity of a given mineral / element that can be ECONOMICALLY extracted, as the price rises, then the deposit can support extraction at a higher cost, eg pumping Co2 to pressurize the well or drilling deeper wells at greater expense.

Perhaps the best example is the Albertan Oil sands, these were considered a large Oil deposit (uneconomic) until a few years ago when the price really rose, now they're mining them, the reserves there are massive at todays oil prices...

I agree with what you say. And yes fossil fuels is as "bio" as you can get. Never really looked at it like that. You do realise though sixfan that oil is produced from decaying matter over millions of years. So that little critter you speak of wont be oil for quite some time. Maybe when we earthlings move to Alpha Centauri.

I think we are both right, just on different tangients. You're talking about reserves, I'm talking about supplies. When supply runs out, there IS no reserve.

The point I was making (probably because I didn't explain it clearer, my bad) is that we are using coal fuels far greater than we can find it. Not so much producing it. To build more refineries is just a bandaid for the immediate future. Let say 50-60 years.

World oil "reserve" figures are inflated. By doing this, creates a stable (but false) world economy. Imagine if countries like Saudi Arabia admitted that they only had "true" reserves to last 60 years. Their economy would decline exponentially toward that brick wall. Lets face it, unless sand prices were to skyrocket, their got nothin'. Not one political body in the world addresses the fact that we will run out because they are in power NOW. What do they care about what is happening in 60 years if it created kaos now, jeopardising their re-election chances for causing panic. Its all about the NOW economy.

Phosphor used to grow grops (which by the way ruins our waterways feeding green algi) is at crisis level. Helium (true) reserves are expected to last only 10 years and it cannot be produced synthetically. You don't hear of these things because pollies don't want to address them. It's not going to be a problem for them.

Sorry mate. Everything is finite.

Cheers and have a safe weekend

[tab]

Oil reserves as we know them are finite, but as sixfan mentioned previously uneconomical reserves are now starting to becoming cost-effective.

I.e. there's a considerable shale oil deposit on the coast of central qld that has had a pilot plant running on it for years, just messing about finding the right technique for extraction. As soon as the price is right it's projects like these that will go in to full production....hence another "reserve"

[sixfan]

I agree with what you say. And yes fossil fuels is as "bio" as you can get. Never really looked at it like that. You do realise though sixfan that oil is produced from decaying matter over millions of years. So that little critter you speak of wont be oil for quite some time. Maybe when we earthlings move to Alpha Centauri.

I think we are both right, just on different tangients. You're talking about reserves, I'm talking about supplies. When supply runs out, there IS no reserve.

The point I was making (probably because I didn't explain it clearer, my bad) is that we are using coal fuels far greater than we can find it. Not so much producing it. To build more refineries is just a bandaid for the immediate future. Let say 50-60 years.

World oil "reserve" figures are inflated. By doing this, creates a stable (but false) world economy. Imagine if countries like Saudi Arabia admitted that they only had "true" reserves to last 60 years. Their economy would decline exponentially toward that brick wall. Lets face it, unless sand prices were to skyrocket, their got nothin'. Not one political body in the world addresses the fact that we will run out because they are in power NOW. What do they care about what is happening in 60 years if it created kaos now, jeopardising their re-election chances for causing panic. Its all about the NOW economy.

Phosphor used to grow grops (which by the way ruins our waterways feeding green algi) is at crisis level. Helium (true) reserves are expected to last only 10 years and it cannot be produced synthetically. You don't hear of these things because pollies don't want to address them. It's not going to be a problem for them.

Sorry mate. Everything is finite.

Cheers and have a safe weekend

I don't quite understand where you are coming from..Supplies are derived by mining reserves, reserves increase as prices increase.

The increase in reserves is exponential, there are far more currently sub-economic Oil supplies available than most people realize. A 20% hike in cost per barrel = more than a 20% increase in reserves. There are vast supplies of Oil shale in Aust for example that become economic at ~$120 a barrel. Iron is a good example, following the recent price hikes, the required head grade (expressed as a percentage Fe) has dropped, new Iron mines are opening all over the place as the higher price support the more costly extraction and refining. Gold is another example a goldprice of $1000 an ounce has seen mining of deposits down to 0.8 g/t open pit become economic even then there's less that 4 years of the world consumption of gold available in reserves but you don't hear anyone screaming of the looming gold crisis.

It's in the interest of the oil multi-nationals to invoke this fear that we're running short, it justifies higher oil prices. Nope, we're no-where near running out of oil.

Yes it takes millions of years to form Oil supplies, but to say that it will take millions of years from today is incorrect.

The process is a continuous one. It never stopped.

Don't buy into the fear campaign, a few tweaks here and there and you can run your car on LPG, OK it has half the calorific content of Petrol but you can make much more power from lpg due to it's inherently higher octane rating. You'll just need bigger tanks.

There will always be oil available for those who can pay for it, it's the third world countries who can't afford the increased costs who'll suffer first. Heck I don't like high fuel costs but realistically, a 20c per ltr price hike is only $26 bucks more to fill my 100 series, unpleasant, but not a tragedy...(We're already paying up to 1.70 ltr in the outer towns near Darwin)

You will always be able to get oil, it's just going to cost more.

[Guest FatBAt]

So let me get this straight. You think fuel will never EVER run out???

Seriously guys...you have got your head in the sand if you think crude oil is finite. EVERY scientist on the PLANET agrees that it IS a finite resource. It's not a renewable resource AND we ARE use it faster than it's produced.

Why are countries lying about what reserves they have if its not an economic reason. Kuwait for instance stated a figure that was 80% higher than what experts believe true.

You are getting confused with reserves and what is actually in the ground. If we were using LESS fuel than what we could find, fuel prices would come down. There would be a glut. And a glut there aint!

Anyway forgetting all that. Read the PDF file that I posted up because I'm assuming you haven't. Caltex predicts oil reserves will be at crisis level in about 15 years. We can debate all you like but this is coming from the largest producer of fuel in Australia.

Lets just agree to disagree.

Cheers

[tab]

Was that Caltex's submission to the ACCC justifying the high bowser prices? Who would have thought? :banghead:

There's no need to lower the argument to a personal level with the head in the sand comment. And your statement about EVERY scientist on the PLANET is absolute crap - got any reference to back that up?

If I'm going to agree with anyone it would have to be the geologist

[sixfan]

So let me get this straight. You think fuel will never EVER run out???

Seriously guys...you have got your head in the sand if you think crude oil is finite. EVERY scientist on the PLANET agrees that it IS a finite resource. It's not a renewable resource AND we ARE use it faster than it's produced.

Why are countries lying about what reserves they have if its not an economic reason. Kuwait for instance stated a figure that was 80% higher than what experts believe true.

You are getting confused with reserves and what is actually in the ground. If we were using LESS fuel than what we could find, fuel prices would come down. There would be a glut. And a glut there aint!

Anyway forgetting all that. Read the PDF file that I posted up because I'm assuming you haven't. Caltex predicts oil reserves will be at crisis level in about 15 years. We can debate all you like but this is coming from the largest producer of fuel in Australia.

Lets just agree to disagree.

Cheers

Would it be in thier interest to to panic a market? Oil is running out, better start looking for alteratives!

cause once we switch off oil, we'll never come back, they know that.

Geez, we've been here before... in the 40's then 70's ... now the 00's

What do you think OPEC do? get together over tea and scones or decide how to get even richer?

supply and demand works fine, untill the supplier has a monopoly, that's what we're talking about here.

I thought we'd agreed that Oil IS a renewable resource, timeframes aside

may as well say solar energy is not renewable because the sun is consumeing Hydrogen to release energy and helium and as you state, nothing is infinte....

Head in the sand is a good place to be, for under the sand remains huge reserves of Oil. :banghead:

P.S I am actually a Scientist, specifically a geological resource scientist and I don't agree.

(Also I can assure you, a lot of others in my field dont agree either, it's just not as newsworthy as panic stations.)

Anyways, didn't mean to offend anyone, I'm certainly not offended...

I've just derived a differing conclusion through the examination of the facts.

happy to agree to disagree and move on, no hard feelings!

and yep, I pretty much think fuel will never ever run out, it'll just get more expensive.

[Guest FatBAt]

Was that Caltex's submission to the ACCC justifying the high bowser prices? Who would have thought? :banghead:

There's no need to lower the argument to a personal level with the head in the sand comment. And your statement about EVERY scientist on the PLANET is absolute crap - got any reference to back that up?

If I'm going to agree with anyone it would have to be the geologist

Sorry if you took offence to the head in the sand comment. I didn't mean to offend anyone.

What has a geologist got to do with world economy and why countries lie about their oil reserves.

Instead of me defending myself as this seems to be getting dirty. I guess I should just ask you.

Do YOU agree that oil will never run out....ever?

[Guest FatBAt]

Anyways, didn't mean to offend anyone, I'm certainly not offended...

I've just derived a differing conclusion through the examination of the facts.

happy to agree to disagree and move on, no hard feelings!

The fact you are a geologist doesn't phase me. You know what you know based only on what you are told and observe. See I too am doing exactly the same thing and drawing my own conclusion based on the information at hand. Not just in geology, but in the politics of it.

I think this debate is like the frog continuously jumping towards the wall at a leap that's 1/2 distance of his last. Does he reach the wall or not. You will have your theory and I will have mine.

We will know the true outcome maybe 15-20 years. Stephen Hawking has stated that if we don't find a way to leave this planet within 100 years, we will all kill ourselves so we may not have much to worry about.

Agree to disagree

Have a great weekend

Cheers

[senna_T]

How far away from the wall is the frog?